Last month we looked at horse profiles beginning to present themselves in Zed Run. We covered 3 possible profiles in the theory, but it is important to always reevaluate. This post will cover a new Profile (P3*), and take a closer look at what we are now calling Profile 4.
In the previous profile post, we looked at P1 being large win %s with fewer second and third finishes. A P2 that finishes evenly across the board, and P3 where horses often out perform their odds to finish second or third. After further observation, an additional profile needs to be added. We are renaming P3 to P4, and adding a parabolic finishing P3.
New Profile 3
The new profile 3 is a horse that is competing for second place in most races. This parabolic profile has wins in an “X-Y-X” pattern. A good example Gazillions in the ZedGazette stable. When Gazillion is run at the best distance consistently, she will have more wins than third places but is still mostly competing for second place.
Now that the we have renamed the previous P3 to P4, we need to access the value of a horse that doesn’t win. A great example is Excalibur from Neftochimik Stable. In the previous race algorithm, before the December 4th update, Excalibur was one of the best racing horses. After the update, she cannot win a race but her Zed class score continues to rise. The ability of P4 horses to continue to rise in class is an aberration compared to P1 mares such as Supreme Polarity and Ducky Mallon, that can struggle to maintain classes with 25% win rates.
This implies that P4 horses, like Excalibur, still hold highly valuable DNA. The value is not being represented as strongly in racing performances, but profile strength. In genesis horses, the profile 4 appears with greater consistency in mares. Also, Szabo mares are heavily weighted towards profile 4. Samwise’s one win came with over 28:1 odds.
The Zed horse profile theory is to help us understand the value of horses within the racing algorithm, and how to create breeding migration strategies. Theoretically, a P1 could be showing us strength of speed and a P2 strength of endurance. Future posts will describe breeding migration strategies using horse profiles.